For decades, the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—Dubai specifically and to a lesser extent Abu Dhabi—has been the region’s go-to destination for international professionals, lured by tax-free salaries, a cosmopolitan lifestyle, and its status as a global business hub. But as Saudi Arabia rolls out its ambitious Vision 2030 agenda, it’s emerging as a serious contender. With billions poured into infrastructure, tourism, and tech—alongside reforms aimed at making the kingdom more livable and investable—the question is no longer whether Saudi Arabia wants to compete with the UAE for global talent. It’s whether it can.
While the long-term outcome remains to be seen, a look at the latest data and developments in both countries offers insight into how this regional rivalry is shaping up.
Is the UAE at a Tipping Point?
Government data show that Dubai’s population now stands at about 3.85 million, reports Business Insider, an increase of about 475,000 people from March 2020. Expats account for 87% of the current total. As expats continue to relocate to Dubai, the cost of living is rising, but salaries are expected to stagnate, according to a new survey Cooper Fitch, a locally based recruitment agency. Dubai is now the costliest city in the Middle East for expats, and ranked 15th globally, according to Mercer’s Cost of Living 2024 ranking, with soaring housing and rental costs being a primary factor.
Abu Dhabi, meanwhile, just landed UBS Group AG, which is opening a new office in the UAE capital as the Swiss banking giant seeks to capitalize on the flood of wealthy individuals leaving countries like the U.K. for low-tax cities across the Middle East, reports Bloomberg. UBS, which already operates offices in Dubai, as well as Riyadh, is looking to draw business from the ultra-rich who have flocked to the city, drawn by the its safeguards to ring-fence assets from foreign jurisdictions, its sovereign wealth funds that control over $1.5 trillion, as well as the UAE’s double tax treaty network.
The influx of foreign workers, as well as tourists, is impacting the local infrastructure. Public transport is limited and roads are routinely jammed, while competition for school admissions is high, reports Bloomberg. The UAE’s 2040 Urban Master Plan seeks to make the city more sustainable, aiming among other things to create green corridors to link the service areas, residential areas, and workplaces; boost land area for education and health facilities by 25%; and facilitate the movement of pedestrians, bicycles, and sustainable mobility.
Social Agenda 33, launched in 2024, focuses on improving education, health care, and social services. Among the emirate’s projects are a $5 billion expansion of the metro and an $8.2 billion drainage network, after extreme rains in April last year caused widespread flooding.
A Vision in the Desert
Saudi Vision 2030, unveiled by then-Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2016, was launched to diversify the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia economically, socially, and culturally. Nine years on, the Kingdom released a report of the progress of achieving the Vision’s goal as of 2024. The report indicated that 85% of the more than 1,500 Vision 2030 initiatives had been completed or are on track, reports Arab News. Among the achievements, the report noted that over 571 international companies now have their regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia. But challenges remain.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign direct investment inflows decreased for the third year running in 2024, reports Bloomberg. Inbound investment fell 19% year-on-year to $20.7 billion, the lowest since 2020. Such investment is key to the diversification of the Saudi economy.
Another emerging challenge is the local housing sector. Bloomberg cites real estate consultancy Knight Frank in reporting that demand from first-time buyers looking to purchase a home fell to 29% last year from 40% in 2023, according to a survey of more than 1,000 households. Many home buyers believe prices are too high, need more time to save, and want more financing options, according to Knight Frank’s 2025 Saudi report. Apartment prices in the capital Riyadh jumped nearly 11% to the equivalent of about $1,500 per square meter in 2024, according to Knight Frank.
Two Visions, One Goal
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are both striving to transition beyond oil dependency through ambitious economic diversification plans. At the heart of those efforts is the race to attract investment and build a highly skilled workforce—both local and international. But success brings growing pains: infrastructure strains, competitive school admissions, and rising housing costs. The real test ahead is whether either—or both—can strike the right balance between growth and livability.