This article is part of a recurring series highlighting recent talent mobility industry reports. If you would like the WERC editorial team to consider covering a specific industry report, email mobility@talenteverywhere.org.
U.S. talent mobility remains subdued, presenting both challenges and opportunities for relocation professionals. Bank of America (BofA) data indicate moves were down about 20% in the second quarter compared to the pre-pandemic first quarter of 2020, with both inter-city and intra-city relocations declining. While some regions and metro areas continue to attract newcomers, others are seeing outflows. Younger generations account for roughly half of cross-city moves, but their share is slipping. Constrained housing supply, high mortgage rates, and the “lock-in effect” are limiting mobility, suggesting relocation demand will grow moderately, influenced by job changes, life events, and long-term interest rates.
Inter-City and Intra-City Moves Decline Amid Persistent Housing Constraints
Based on an analysis of about 45 million customers with continuous accounts between 2020 and 2024, BofA found that early signs of recovery have faded, as both inter-city and intra-city moves fell year over year, with sharper declines within cities. The Midwest continues to attract movers, with Indianapolis and Columbus among the fastest-growing metros, while Texas cities like Austin and San Antonio also gained. By contrast, the West, Northeast, and Florida metros, including Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, saw outflows. Overall, domestic migration flows cooled in the second quarter compared to the first.
BofA’s data show that about half of city-to-city moves are made by Gen Z and millennials, although their share has slipped over the past year as baby boomers and those in the Silent Generation increased slightly. A cooling labor market may explain both the overall slowdown in mobility and the reduced share of younger movers.
Housing mobility, meanwhile, remains constrained by limited supply, though conditions are slowly improving. New housing supply has risen sharply, reaching just under 10 months of sales in June, but existing home supply is lagging at 4.6 months—similar to 2015/2016 and well below historic peaks. The main drag is the lock-in effect, as many homeowners hold mortgages below 5%, making them reluctant to sell and reset at higher rates. This effect is strongest in the West, where households also face higher mortgage-to-income ratios, though cities like New York, Washington, D.C., Miami, and Austin may experience similar pressures.
Strategic Planning Essential as Mobility Recovery Remains Limited
Looking ahead, moving mobility is unlikely to rebound quickly, given a cooling job market and persistently high mortgage rates. While new housing supply is improving, the lock-in effect—especially in the West—remains a major drag. Over time, “forced moves” tied to life events may gradually weaken this effect, raising effective mortgage rates, but change will be slow. A Federal Reserve rate cut could help if it lowers mortgage rates, although fixed-rate mortgages mean longer-term interest rates, shaped by inflation and fiscal expectations, will remain the key driver of mobility trends.
For mobility professionals, the current environment signals a cautious approach. While certain metros in the Midwest and Texas continue to attract relocations, overall domestic mobility is restrained by limited housing supply, high mortgage rates, and the persistent lock-in effect. Younger workers—typically more mobile—are slowing their moves amid a cooling labor market, while older generations are increasing their share of relocations. Strategic planning should account for these regional and generational trends, focusing on areas with growing demand and anticipating gradual shifts driven by life events, market adjustments, and potential changes in interest rates. Flexibility and foresight will be key.